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Last Friday, President Trump issued an executive order temporarily barring entry of refugees, visitors, and immigrants—including those with green cards—from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. During this delay, the government is tasked with making its screening process more extensive. The order indefinitely bans refugees from Syria.

As Henry Enten notes, we’ll have to wait until we have more polling data to ascertain how the public will judge the action, but polling over the past year gives us some clues.

Slim but Shy Support Most polls throughout 2015-2016 found about 56% of Americans opposed Trump’s call to temporarily ban Muslim immigrants from entering the United States. However, these polls tended to be conducted by live telephone interviewers. In contrast, polls conducted online by reputable firms like YouGov and Morning consult, find a plurality of Americans in support.

Aggregating over 40 telephone and online polls conducted over the past two years finds Americans opposed to the ban 56% to 39% in surveys conducted by phone, but a plurality in support 49% to 39% in surveys conducted online. This suggests that people taking surveys by phone feel uncomfortable sharing their true feelings and thus fib to the live interviewers. But, privately taking a survey online encourages people to share what they really think. In the polling world, this is called “social desirability bias” evoked by social pressure to not appear prejudiced to the live interviewer.

Of course, the difference cannot be entirely attributed to survey mode since the questions weren’t worded the exact same way. Nonetheless, it’s suggestive that there is a “shy immigration restrictionist” effect going on. (Remember the shy Trump voter?)

Americans Don’t Support an Outright Ban on Refugees Existing data suggest Americans do not support a permanent ban on refugees. Most telephone and online surveys found that Americans oppose not taking any refugees at all and a plurality (46%) say the “US should open our borders to refugees of foreign conflicts” according to an Ipsos/Reuters Jan 2017 online survey. At the same time, Americans tend to support taking fewer refugees rather than more, when given the option. For instance, both an Ipsos/Reuters Jan 2017 online survey and a Marist Apr 2016 telephone survey found 53% of Americans want the US to take in fewer refugees.

Wording Impacts Support Strength As you can imagine, survey question wording impacts responses. Support for immigration restriction increases when refugees and immigrants are described as coming from “terror prone regions” or when respondents are told that government needs time to enhance security measures. For instance, Rasmussen, measures the highest degree of support (57%) when it asked if respondents support or oppose a “temporary ban on refugees from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen until the federal government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists from coming here.” This question presupposes the government screening system is already poor and the new administration could meaningfully improve it. If these are the assumptions going in, support will be higher. When national security concerns are invoked and at the top of people’s minds they are more supportive of immigration restrictions.

Support for immigration restriction decreases, however, when the described policy implies a religious test. Surveys register lower support (48%) if the policy is described as a “temporary ban on all Muslims traveling to the United States” (from Morning Consult).

Support Changes with Global Events We find that support for accepting refugees and immigrants varies with what’s happening in the news and the level of threat Americans perceive. For instance, support for banning refugees jumped from 24% in September 2015 to 38% in December 2015 after the San Bernardino attack, two NBC/WSJ telphone surveys found.

Support for a Temporary Immigration Ban Varies by Country of Origin A Morning Consult survey found that majorities of Americans support a “temporary ban on immigration” from Syria (56%), Iraq (55%), and Libya (53%). However, less than half support such a ban on immigrants from Egypt (46%), and Mexico (46%). This indicates that security fears associated with particular countries are an important factor behind people’s attitudes.

Longstanding Opposition to Accepting Refugees Frank Newport has shown using Gallup data over the past 80 years that Americans have a longstanding opposition to accepting refugees. Back in 1939, about two-thirds of Americans opposed accepting German children refugees. In 1947 after World War II, 57% opposed accepting 10,000 European refugees. A similar share in 1979 also opposed accepting Vietnamese refugees. A rare exception was a majority (66%) who supported bringing in a couple hundred refugees from Kosovo in 1999.

Americans are Conflicted A new report published by Democracy Fund Voice, Stranger in My Own Country, finds that Americans are conflicted over immigration. Longform interviews and a national survey (conducted online) found that Americans believe that our country is a melting pot, a nation of immigrants, but at the same time expressed concern that immigration from certain regions could pose a security threat and could also risk changing the culture of America.

For instance, looking at President Donald Trump’s core supporters, we find that 66% agreed that “we should follow the Golden Rule and treat others as we’d like to be treated, including people of different races, and countries.” Moreover, 4 in 10 also expressed concern that anti-immigrant sentiment could lead to violence against immigrants residing in the U.S. At the same time 58% feared that “America’s culture has been influenced by other cultures too much” and 78% felt the US was far less safe from foreign threats compared to when they were growing up.

Similarly among Americans overall, a Marist Apr 2016 survey found that a plurality (50%) of Americans thought the U.S. was morally obligated to take in refugees. But in the same survey, 53% also revealed they thought the US should “take in fewer refugees than it does now.”

Education Changes Attitudes We find that concerns over immigration tend to decline as people attain higher levels of education. For instance, the Democracy Fund Voice report found that Americans with more education were far less likely to agree that the US should “stop or strictly limit Syrian refugees coming to the US.” Among those with high school diplomas, 57% thought the US should limit or stop accepting Syrian refugees, compared to 49% of those with some college experience, and 40% with college degrees.

In a media experiment I ran for the Democracy Fund Voice report, I found that videos and print media that conveyed the following significantly reduced fears over immigration and increased support for accepting Syrian refugees: showing that immigrants want to join the American way of life rather than change it, are relatable, and once they get here think of themselves as patriotic Americans. Furthermore, showing the harmful consequences of prejudice also calmed fears over immigration. For instance, this video of Muslim American millennials reading mean Facebook comments increased favorability toward Muslim Americans from 34% in the control group to 52% in the treatment group, an 18-percentage point change. Among strong Trump supporters, favorable attitudes increased from 11% to 38%, a 27-percentage point change.

The chart to the right presents more results from the experiment finding a variety of different digital and print media significantly reduced nativist attitudes among respondents.

Implications

In sum, online surveys reveal Americans are concerned about the national security risks they believe might result from the U.S. accepting refugees and immigrants from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. However, Americans are unlikely to support a permanent ban on accepting refugees into the US. Support for immigration restriction increases when the issue is framed around national security risks and giving the government additional time to enhance security measures. However, support declines if such a policy is framed as a religious test for entry into the country.

The difference between telephone and online polls should trouble both journalists and policymakers alike. If Americans feel they cannot express their true opinions on important policy matters it makes it difficult for journalists, policy experts, and lawmakers to respond to these opinions, and at times push back. People won’t have a chance to change their minds if they keep their opinions to themselves and thus no one can provide countervailing evidence.

In addition, political elites would be unwise to assume that these views are simply due to nativism, xenophobia, or some other label. Some people are driven by such concerns, but others are unclear of the risks posed by refugees and immigrants from war-torn countries. Evidence suggests that respectfully explaining the risks, benefits, and showing that immigrants assimilate into US society can effectively persuade people (although not all people) to consider a more liberalized immigration policy.

For more public opinion analysis sign up here to receive Cato’s upcoming digest of Public Opinion Insights and public opinion studies. You can follow Emily Ekins on twitter @emilyekins.

Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

There is a new paper out in the journal Climatic Change that takes a look into the issue of publication bias in the climate change literature. This is something that we have previously looked into ourselves. The results of our initial investigation (from back in 2010) were written up and published in the paper “Evidence for ‘Publication bias’ concerning global warming in Science and Nature” in which we concluded that there was an overwhelming propensity for Nature and Science—considered among the world’s leading scientific journals—to publish findings that concluded climate change was “worse than expected.” We noted the implications:

This has considerable implications for the popular perception of global warming science, for the nature of “compendia” of climate change research, such as the reports of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and for the political process that uses those compendia as the basis for policy…

The consequent synergy between [publication bias], public perception, scientific “consensus” and policy is very disturbing. If the results shown for Science and Nature are in fact a general character of the scientific literature concerning global warming, our policies are based upon a unidirectionally biased stream of new information, rather than one that has a roughly equiprobable distribution of altering existing forecasts or implications of climate change in a positive or negative direction. This bias exists despite the stated belief of the climate research community that it does not.

In their investigation into publication bias, the authors of the new paper, Christian Harlos, Tim C. Edgell, and Johan Hollander, looked more broadly across scientific journals (including articles from 31 different journals), but a bit more narrowly at the field of climate change, limiting themselves to a sub-set of articles that dealt with a marine response to climate change (they selected, via random sampling, 120 articles in total).

Harlos et al. were primarily interested in looking into whether or not there was a bias in these articles resulting from an under-reporting of non-significant results. This bias type is known as the “file drawer” problem—in which research findings that aren’t statistically significant are rarely published (and therefore sit in a “file drawer).  This leads to an over- (and non-robust) estimate of the number of truly significant results. The “file drawer” problem has received a lot of attention in recent years (see here for example) and it continues to be an active research area.

From their examination, however, the Harlos team did not find firm evidence that the file-drawer-type bias was strongly manifest. But, importantly, they did find that several other types of bias were manifest, including bias in how scientific findings were being communicated:

However, our meta-analysis did find multiple lines of evidence of biases within our sample of articles, which were perpetuated in journals of all impact factors and related largely to how science is communicated: The large, statistically significant effects were typically showcased in abstracts and summary paragraphs, whereas the lesser effects, especially those that were not statistically significant, were often buried in the main body of reports. Although the tendency to isolate large, significant results in abstracts has been noted elsewhere (Fanelli 2012), here we provide the first empirical evidence of such a trend across a large sample of literature.

The authors note that, in particular, this bias was worst in the high impact journals (like Science and Nature), and that:

[O]ur results corroborate with others by showing that high impact journals typically report large effects based on small sample sizes (Fraley and Vazire 2014), and high impact journals have shown publication bias in climate change research (Michaels 2008, and further discussed in Radetzki 2010).

Ultimately, importantly, and significantly, they conclude:

…[M]ost audiences, especially non-scientific ones, are more likely to read article abstracts or summary paragraphs only, without perusing technical results. The onus to effectively communicate science does not fall entirely on the reader; rather, it is the responsibility of scientists and editors to remain vigilant, to understand how biases may pervade their work, and to be proactive about communicating science to non-technical audiences in transparent and un-biased ways. Ironically, articles in high impact journals are those most cited by other scientists; therefore, the practice of sensationalizing abstracts may bias scientific consensus too, assuming many scientists may also rely too heavily on abstracts during literature reviews and do not spend sufficient time delving into the lesser effects reported elsewhere in articles.

Despite our sincerest aim of using science as an objective and unbiased tool to record natural history, we are reminded that science is a human construct, often driven by human needs to tell a compelling story, to reinforce the positive, and to compete for limited resources—publication trends and communication bias is a proof of that.

These findings are yet another impelling reason (recall the problem with the bias in climate model tuning) why a re-examination of our government’s previous assessment reports of climate change (such as those underlying the EPA’s endangerment finding) should be undertaken by the new Administration at the soonest possible opportunity.

References

Harlos, C., T.C. Edgell, and J. Hollander, 2017. No evidence of publication bias in climate change science, Climatic Change, 140, 375-385, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1880-1

Michaels, P.J., 2008. Evidence for “Publication bias” concerning global warming in Science and Nature. Energy and Environment, 19, 287–301, doi:10.1260/095830508783900735

Yesterday, the New York Times ran a column that claimed to illustrate the issues at the heart of the current debate over the so-called “fiduciary duty rule,” which is slated to affect retirement accounts in the coming months. Except the column completely avoided one of the most important issues—access to financial advice—and instead ruminated on the troubles afflicting movie star Johnny Depp. Mr. Depp may be profligate and his money managers may have been asleep at the wheel, but the fiduciary duty has nothing to do with the ultra rich or their expensive advisors. Quite the opposite. Its impact will be felt almost exclusively by moderate income Americans precisely because they have only moderate incomes.

The rule was proposed and implemented in 2015 and 2016; if left unchanged, it will become effective in April 2017. Its stated intent is to ensure that investors receive quality financial advice by requiring that brokers selling certain retirement savings products conform to a “fiduciary duty” standard. In legal terms, acting as a fiduciary means handling another person’s business with the care that a prudent person would take in handling his or her own affairs. Specifically, the rule is intended to address situations in which brokers act as advisors, providing information to investors about the pros and cons of different types of retirement accounts.

This sounds good. Why wouldn’t we want advisors to act in investors’ best interests? Isn’t that just good business? It may be, but there is a difference between deciding to act in your clients’ best interests and abiding by a regulation that imposes a legal standard. The first is essentially costless and may actually benefit the broker by promoting a reputation for customer service. The second is anything but costless. Aside from the expense of implementing necessary compliance procedures to ensure that everything adheres to the law, imposing a legal duty raises the specter of litigation. Litigation, even baseless litigation, is always extremely costly.

Which gets us to the real issue. The problem is not that brokers might have to incur additional expense. The problem is that they might decide the extra expense is just not worth it. And here’s why Mr. Depp and his problems are a terrible lead-in to the debate. I would bet a considerable amount of money that Mr. Depp’s advisors are not brokers being paid on commission. I would bet that instead they are advisers paid a fee based on a percentage of the assets they manage, and that they already abide by a fiduciary duty standard. They are willing to do that because they make huge amounts of money managing rich people’s assets.

Typical rates for this type of service are about 1 percent of assets under management. The New York Times article estimates that Mr. Depp has earned about $650 million throughout his career. If his advisers were managing even just half that amount, that would mean he was paying them $3.25 million a year to manage his money. By comparison, the average U.S. retirement account holds only $5,000. The work involved in managing $325 million is more than the work involved in managing $5,000, but not much more. Certainly not 65,000 times as much work. Considering that an account with $325 million would pay $3.25 million and an account with $5,000 would pay just $50 per year, based on a 1 percent fee, which account would you take if you were an adviser?

The risk the new rule presents is that average investors will lose the access they currently have to financial advice from real people. (There are some computer algorithms that can devise investment strategies and these services will likely pick up much of the slack, but there are still things only a human being can do—have a phone conversation and answer questions, for one.)

It’s not that the column was entirely wrong-headed. It did highlight one of the central questions of the debate, which is whether average people are smart enough to deduce that advice from someone paid on commission must be taken with the appropriate level of salt. But by focusing on someone who will be unaffected by the rule, whose wealth insulates him almost entirely from such “protective” measures, it obfuscates the real problem. The problem is that regulation aimed at “helping” or “protecting” investors usually just protects them right out of the market. Which is to say that it’s no protection at all.

In an op-ed for the Boston Herald last week urging the Trump administration to uphold the Iran nuclear deal, I noted that the precise posture that the Trump White House will have toward Iran is not yet known. Today, we got our first insight into just how confrontational that posture will be. And it doesn’t look good.

Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn said in a White House briefing that, “As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.” According to Flynn, Iran’s recent test of ballistic missiles, which he said is “in defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2231,” along with an alleged attack on a Saudi naval vessel “conducted by Iran-supported Houthi militants” in Yemen, serve as evidence of “Iran’s destabilizing behavior across the entire Middle East” and make clear that the nuclear agreement signed by Iran and the P5+1 has “emboldened” Iran to act nefariously in the region, “plac[ing] American lives at risk.”

Flynn’s statement amounts to heated, combative rhetoric over rather trivial issues. Only one of the incidents cited by Flynn was an Iranian action. While it’s true that Iran supports the Houthi rebels in Yemen, it has never been clear exactly how much support they give and it is doubtful Iran has the kind of leverage over the militants that make them qualify as strategic proxies. At the end of the day, whatever instability is caused by Iranian support for the Houthis, it doesn’t hold a candle to the regional instability caused by Sunni jihadists, like al-Qaeda-linked groups and ISIS, that have been supported with funds coming out of Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states. Rather than berate the Saudis with threatening bombast in a White House briefing, though, Washington continues to aid the Saudi military as it relentlessly bombs Yemen, killing thousands of civilians, putting millions at risk of starvation, and committing acts that a United Nations panel said could amount to crimes against humanity

With regard to Iran’s ballistic missile test, the reality is far less alarming than Flynn’s words suggest. The nuclear deal itself doesn’t prohibit these missile tests. And as Dan Joyner, professor of international law at the University of Alabama School of Law, explains, “the assertion that Iran’s ballistic missile tests…violate UN Security Council resolutions is incorrect because, as of Implementation Day, all UNSCR’s adopted prior to that date regarding Iran are terminated except for Resolution 2231. And the language that Resolution 2231 employs in addressing Iran’s ballistic missile activity is legally nonbinding language…[T]here can thus be no violation of a legal obligation that doesn’t exist.”

As The Wall Street Journal reports, “UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the deal, ‘called upon’ Iran to avoid any activity related to missiles designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.” It’s hard to confirm one way or the other, but for what it’s worth Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told the Journal that none of Iran’s missiles are designed to carry a nuclear warhead and the tests involved “conventional warheads that are within the legitimate defense domain.” Given that Iran has verifiably rolled back its nuclear enrichment program over the past year, it makes sense that they would have little interest in designing missiles that can carry nuclear warheads, especially given the added international scrutiny it would needlessly attract.

Flynn’s statement indicates an eagerness to stir up tensions with Iran over relatively innocuous issues. This will undoubtedly be perceived in Tehran as threatening, thereby bolstering the more hawkish voices in Iran and undermining the future viability of the Iran nuclear deal, despite the fact that, as the International Crisis Group recently reiterated, “It has delivered so far on its narrow objective: effectively and verifiably blocking all potential pathways for Iran to race toward nuclear weapons.” 

At an AEI forum this week, Naomi Schaefer Riley discussed her insightful new book on Indian policies, The New Trail of Tears. I was pleased to take part in the forum alongside Robert Doar of AEI, Rep. Rob Bishop, and Keith Moore, who headed the Bureau of Indian Education (BIE).

I focused on the bureaucratic failures of the BIE and Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), as well as the institutional factors that deter growth on reservations. All of the panelists agreed that the lack of individual property rights on reservations is a key problem.

Keith Moore’s comments impressed me. Keith grew up on, and nearby, the Rosebud reservation in South Dakota. He served as BIE head from 2010 to 2012. Here are a few of his observations:

  • On the effects of subsidies: “Ingenuity, and the innovative, and creative parts of life have been pretty squelched for a long time because the government has provided.”
  • On reservation land being held in trust: “We’re not going to get where we need to go in Indian country until we have freedom, autonomy, and the ability to buy land and own it and create wealth.”
  • On the federal bureaucracy: “You look at the BIA system, it’s a nightmare. Bottom line, I lived it, I was in it, I left it … I don’t know how you move this bureaucratic titanic to get to a spot where it could have a positive effect. ”

The answer, as I think Keith would agree, does not lie in the BIA/BIE, but in Congress and the tribes making fundamental institutional reforms in areas such as property rights and education.

For background on how federal policies toward American Indians have been failing for two centuries, see this study.

My first choice from the president’s fabulous list of terrific judges – they’re all winners, believe me (no really, solid list) – was probably the judiciary’s twitter laureate, Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willett, but Judge Neil Gorsuch of the Tenth Circuit was right up there. As you can see by my statement to CNN, I’m pleased as punch with the selection. 

There’ll be time enough to analyze Judge Gorsuch’s work, but after reading a stack of his opinions over the weekend, the most salient parts of his judicial record are as follows:

  1. A keen appreciation for constitutional structure as a guarantor of our rights and liberties.
  2. A real devotion to originalism – probably more than the self-described “faint-hearted originalist” Antonin Scalia – and textualism.
  3. Strong support for the freedom of speech and religion, and the First Amendment more broadly.
  4. Skepticism of the administrative state.
  5. Like Scalia, he construes criminal statutes narrowly, so people aren’t convicted and punished without the government’s meeting its evidentiary burden or establishing that it didn’t violate constitutional rights in arresting and prosecuting defendants.
  6. Really, really good writing, which even Justice Elena Kagan has praised.

Gorsuch also maintains a good relationship with Cato and has published a Policy Analysis with us. In short, Donald Trump has managed to pick a nominee who should please everyone other than progressives: social conservatives, libertarians, legal elites, and I imagine the populists who trust him to pick “the best judges.” Left-wing activists are already talking about how Gorsuch is extreme and is anti-women, workers, yada yada – they have to raise money somehow – but I find it hard to see how Senate Democrats will muster 40 votes to sustain a filibuster against someone who was unanimously confirmed in 2006, particularly with a tough 2018 map.

For more analysis, see my short piece in the New York Post, plus Andrew Grossman and David Rivkin in the Wall Street Journal, as well as these excellent essays by Ramesh Ponnuru and Ed Whelan.

There are numerous causes of federal government expansion, including special-interest pressures and the ability to borrow-and-spend endlessly.

Another cause was highlighted in a recent story about a Bush-Obama education program: politicians are excessively optimistic and hopelessly naïve about their ability to solve society’s problems top-down from Washington.

Neal McCluskey mentioned the failure of the School Improvement Grant program the other day, but I wanted to highlight the Washington Post summary because this is such a classic failure:

One of the Obama administration’s signature efforts in education, which pumped billions of federal dollars into overhauling the nation’s worst schools, failed to produce meaningful results, according to a federal analysis.

Test scores, graduation rates and college enrollment were no different in schools that received money through the School Improvement Grants program — the largest federal investment ever targeted to failing schools — than in schools that did not.

The Education Department published the findings on the website of its research division on Wednesday  hours before President Obama’s political appointees walked out the door.

The School Improvement Grants program has been around since the administration of President George W. Bush, but it received an enormous boost under Obama. The administration funneled $7 billion into the program between 2010 and 2015 — far exceeding the $4 billion it spent on Race to the Top grants.

The school turnaround effort, he told The Washington Post days before he left office in 2016, was arguably the administration’s “biggest bet.”

He and other administration officials sought to highlight individual schools that made dramatic improvements after receiving the money. But the new study released this week shows that, as a large-scale effort, School Improvement Grants failed.

It is excessively optimistic and hopelessly naïve to think that a new federal spending effort would turn around the nation’s schools after that approach has not worked for five decades. But the Post reveals how deep the blind optimism was in this case:

Some education experts say that the administration closed its eyes to mounting evidence about the program’s problems in its own interim evaluations, which were released in the years after the first big infusion of cash.

The latest interim evaluation, released in 2015, found mixed results, with students at one-third of the schools showing no improvement or even sliding backward.

Even then, Duncan remained optimistic about the School Improvement Grants, which he said had — along with the Race to the Top grants — unleashed innovation across the country.

For more on the causes of government growth and failure, see here and here.

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